School District Financial Risk Analysis

Measures

Change in weighted student count

56 of 207 districts are at high risk for this measure

This measure shows a district’s change in group A weighted student count (WSC) over a 1- and 4-year period. Districts receive most of their State and local tax revenues based on their weighted student count and a per student State equalization funding formula. A single-year substantial decrease in WSC, or smaller but repeated decreases over more years, may expose a district to higher financial risk due to the loss of student-count-generated revenue. Revenue losses without similar levels of spending reductions will decrease available reserves. Districts with low or no reserves must react quickly to revenue losses to avoid overspending legal budget limits and available resources. In fiscal year (FY) 2021, many Arizona school districts experienced unprecedented decreases in WSCs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The financial risk of those decreases may not have been as significant as similar decreases in other years due to available federal relief monies. Many districts’ WSCs have increased back to where they were prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Arizona school district funding formula increases all districts' student counts with a group A weight and increases specific student counts for special needs with group B weights.

  • Group A weights provide funding for common student needs across all districts and are determined based on the total number of K-8 and 9-12 students, respectively. As shown in the table below, group A weights are higher for smaller districts to adjust for their need to spread costs over fewer students, are higher for preschool students with disabilities, and are higher for 9-12 students compared to K-8 students
    District size Weights per student count*
    K-8 9-12
    1–99 student count 1.399 1.559
    100–499 student count 1.278 to 1.398 1.398 to 1.558
    500–599 student count 1.158 to 1.278 1.268 to 1.398
    600 or more student count 1.158 1.268
    Preschool students with disabilities 1.450

    *There are slightly higher weights for small, isolated districts as defined in A.R.S. §15-901(B)(28).

  • Group B weights, including a weight for gifted students, provide funding primarily for individual students with specialized educational needs . Group B weights range from 0.007 to 7.947 and is intended to increase district funding to meet the additional needs of the identified students in each specialized educational need category.

Our analysis looks at each district’s change in group A WSC as it is used in the largest portions of student-count-generated formula funding from State and local taxes. For fiscal year 2023, districts are receiving approximately $5,483 per group A weighted student count through base support and classroom site funding.

Decreases in WSC will have varying effects on a district’s financial risk, depending on the size of the district and the length of time over which the decreases occur. To account for this, as shown in the table below, we used multiple percentage thresholds, based on district size, to determine risk related to WSC declines and used different percentage declines for a 4-year change than we used for a 1-year change. Some small and very small districts increase their local property taxes with a small school adjustment . Generally, the ability to levy a small school adjustment reduces risk related to WSC declines; however, districts that qualify for State equalization assistance and are not able to increase their small school adjustment due to a frozen tax rate will lose funding when WSC declines. Therefore, most districts eligible for a small school adjustment are not considered high risk, even when experiencing WSC declines.

District size FY 2022 students attending* Group A WSC decline considered high risk
1-year decline 4-year decline
Large and very large 6,000 or more 2.5% or more 5% or more
Medium-small, medium and medium-large 500–5,999 5% or more 7.5% or more
Small and very small 0-499 7.5% or more 10% or more

* FY 2022 students attending, used to classify districts into size categories, are determined using our Office’s analysis of Arizona Department of Education (ADE)-provided, school-district-reported attending average daily membership (ADM) counts. That analysis includes students from one Arizona school district attending another district under a tuition agreement in the district where they attend.

The applicable WSCs from the most recent 5 years were used to calculate the 1- and 4-year change.

FY 2019 through FY 2021 WSC was obtained from the Arizona Department of Education’s APOR 55-1 report for each district and fiscal year. FY 2022 and FY 2023 WSC was obtained from ADE’s BSA 55-1 report. Current year group A WSC is the count as of November 21, 2022 used to calculate districts’ November payments for the current fiscal year. Final current year WSC information will not be available until after the end of the fiscal year.

Frozen tax rate data was obtained from the Property Tax Oversight Commission’s report, 2022 Review of School Districts that Exceed the 1 Percent State Constitutional Limit.

Districts at high risk for this measure

District Among the highest-risk districts County 1-year change 4-year change Additional information
Ajo USD Pima County -3.5% -10.2% No additional information
Alhambra ESD Maricopa County -1.2% -16.4% No additional information
Amphitheater USD Pima County -2.4% -11.8% No additional information
Apache Junction USD Pinal County -1.8% -12.6% No additional information
Blue Ridge USD Navajo County -3.6% -14.0% No additional information
Bullhead City ESD Mohave County -1.9% -12.3% No additional information
Cartwright ESD Maricopa County -5.1% -13.1% No additional information
Cave Creek USD Maricopa County -6.7% -15.9% No additional information
Cedar USD
1 of 3
highest-risk
districts
Navajo County -8.6% -18.7% No additional information
Chandler USD Maricopa County -1.6% -5.7% No additional information
Chinle USD Apache County 1.6% -7.8% No additional information
Cottonwood-Oak Creek ESD Yavapai County -1.0% -12.8% No additional information
Creighton ESD Maricopa County -3.9% -14.9% No additional information
Double Adobe ESD
1 of 3
highest-risk
districts
Cochise County -16.3% -21.2% No additional information
Douglas USD Cochise County -0.8% -8.0% No additional information
Flagstaff USD Coconino County -0.2% -5.4% No additional information
Florence USD Pinal County -4.6% -1.1% No additional information
Fountain Hills USD Maricopa County -7.3% -16.0% No additional information
Fowler ESD Maricopa County 0.7% -13.8% No additional information
Ganado USD Apache County N/R -15.6% N/R = Not reliable; related data and analysis not reported.
Glendale ESD Maricopa County -4.4% -21.9% No additional information
Grand Canyon USD Coconino County -5.5% -10.9% No additional information
Isaac ESD
1 of 3
highest-risk
districts
Maricopa County -4.9% -23.3% No additional information
Kyrene ESD Maricopa County -5.1% -15.7% No additional information
Litchfield ESD Maricopa County -1.1% -6.1% No additional information
Mammoth-San Manuel USD Pinal County -2.2% -16.8% No additional information
McNeal ESD Cochise County -10.8% -7.9% No additional information
Mesa USD Maricopa County -0.3% -7.7% No additional information
Miami USD Gila County -42.6% -8.9% No additional information
Murphy ESD Maricopa County -3.8% -22.2% No additional information
Naco ESD Cochise County -6.6% -10.0% No additional information
Osborn ESD Maricopa County -4.7% -15.1% No additional information
Page USD Coconino County 0.3% -9.0% No additional information
Paradise Valley USD Maricopa County -2.4% -10.1% No additional information
Pendergast ESD Maricopa County 2.1% -12.7% No additional information
Phoenix ESD Maricopa County -3.8% -20.5% No additional information
Quartzsite ESD La Paz County -4.8% -25.1% No additional information
Ray USD Pinal County -5.5% -15.8% No additional information
Roosevelt ESD Maricopa County -2.8% -17.3% No additional information
Sacaton ESD Pinal County -6.9% -22.2% No additional information
San Simon USD Cochise County -7.1% -17.7% No additional information
Scottsdale USD Maricopa County -1.5% -6.7% No additional information
Sedona-Oak Creek JUSD Yavapai County 4.1% -7.5% No additional information
Sierra Vista USD Cochise County -0.4% -12.7% No additional information
Stanfield ESD Pinal County -7.6% -17.4% No additional information
Sunnyside USD Pima County 0.5% -9.1% No additional information
Tempe ESD Maricopa County -2.8% -9.7% No additional information
Tempe UHSD Maricopa County -0.7% -6.3% No additional information
Tolleson ESD Maricopa County -0.1% -9.5% No additional information
Tuba City USD Coconino County -1.5% -7.9% No additional information
Tucson USD Pima County -0.7% -7.8% No additional information
Union ESD Maricopa County -1.4% -9.8% No additional information
Washington ESD Maricopa County -2.4% -15.2% No additional information
Wellton ESD Yuma County -1.0% -22.7% No additional information
Wilson ESD Maricopa County -0.6% -11.4% No additional information
Window Rock USD Apache County 3.2% -8.4% No additional information