School district financial risk analysis—January 2026
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—Among the highest-risk districts
Wilson Elementary School District (District) is identified as high risk, largely due to its incomplete and unreliable fiscal year 2025 annual financial report (AFR), preventing us from adequately analyzing the District’s risk. As shown on the measure cards below, the District is identified as high risk for the operating and capital budget limit reserve measures, all 3 financial position measures, and capital monies redirected to operations.
The District submitted its FY 2025 AFR to the Arizona Department of Education (ADE) in November 2025. However, ADE has not processed the AFR because of errors in the District’s submitted files. In discussing the file errors with the District’s administration, they stated that the data in the FY 2025 AFR is unreliable, and they are working to correct their underlying accounting data before preparing a revised AFR to submit to ADE. As of our report issuance, the District has not submitted a revised AFR to ADE. As a result, we cannot adequately analyze 5 of the 10 financial risk measures that include or rely on the District’s AFR information.
Therefore, we must identify the District as high-risk for the following measures until reliable AFR data is available.
For the other areas where the District provided reliable data and we were able to analyze that data, we noted risk in certain areas. Specifically, the District redirected 45.98% of its capital monies to operational spending in FY 2026, which could indicate the District is delaying necessary operational spending cuts or may be at risk of overspending its capital budget limit when large capital spending needs arise. In addition, the District’s weighted student count (WSC) had been declining 17.7% since FY 2022, except that for FY 2026 to date, the District’s WSC has increased 5.74%. Although the District’s current WSC increase is helpful, further declines could impact its student-count-generated revenues and budget limits and increase its overall risk for the WSC measure.
The District has not provided an estimated date that it will submit its revised FY 2025 AFR to ADE. We will continue to follow up with the District until it submits a revised FY 2025 AFR. We will obtain the relevant AFR data once it is available and analyze it to determine the District’s updated risk status. If the District remains in the highest-risk category, we will begin periodic meetings with the District in early 2026 to discuss its plan and actions taken to lessen the District’s financial risk.
The Measures page describes how each measure was calculated, how districts were identified as high risk for each measure, and other measure-related information.
Some districts have access to revenues and budget capacity that are not available to all districts. These revenues may help lessen financial risks for some districts, but desegregation and small school adjustment revenues can contribute risk for other districts, if they result in a district's property tax rate being frozen, which can cause the district to accumulate unfunded budget capacity. Select the information icon to learn more about the revenues presented.
Source: Desegregation, small school adjustment, and voter-approved budget override amounts - FY 2025 Arizona Department of Education BUDG75 report. Federal Impact Aid amounts - FY 2025 district submitted, unaudited annual financial reports.