School district financial risk analysis—January 2026
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—Among the highest-risk districts
Tucson Unified School District is at high risk of not being able to operate within its available budget constraints and cash resources. As shown on the measure cards below, the District’s high-risk status is due to its change in weighted student count (WSC), operating and capital budget limit reserves, General Fund operating margin ratio, General Fund change in fund balance, and capital monies redirected to operations.
The District’s WSC has consistently declined every year since fiscal year (FY) 2022, with an overall 8.99% decline, including a 3.68% decline in FY 2026, to date, impacting its budget limits and student-count-generated revenues.
The District increased its operating budget limit reserve to over $38 million in FY 2023 because of the additional COVID-19 federal relief monies that were available to all districts at that time. However, since FY 2023, the District has used 36.43% of that reserve, with a 25.18% decrease during FY 2025. Similarly, the District accumulated a capital budget limit reserve of over $12.5 million at the end of FY 2022 and has been steadily spending the reserve since then. Specifically, the District decreased its reserve to only $1.9 million at the end of FY 2025, which represents an 82.99% decline since FY 2021 and 68.22% decline during FY 2025 alone. The District began redirecting a small portion of its capital monies to support operational spending in FY 2024 (8.67%) but increased that amount in FYs 2025 and 2026 to $10 million, or 44.41% and 45.15%, respectively. The District’s steadily decreasing capital budget limit reserve and increased redirecting of capital monies to operations, could indicate it is delaying necessary operational spending cuts or may be at risk of overspending its capital budget limit when large capital spending needs arise.
Although the District reduced General Fund spending from FYs 2024 to 2025, General Fund expenditures still exceeded available revenues (i.e., negative operating margin) in FY 2025, reducing the District’s General Fund balance by 42.25%, leaving it with a General Fund reserve balance that would cover just over 1 month of expenditures going into FY 2026.
While the District has not yet exceeded its statutorily prescribed budget limits or cash resources, it must identify and implement appropriate risk-mitigation measures to prevent future overspending and cash deficits. See the District’s action plan below.
The District's management created this downloadable financial risk action plan to describe its current and planned actions to reduce its financial risks. The action plan includes the District's identified root causes for each of its risk areas, its planned mitigating actions, and the estimated financial impact.
The Measures page describes how each measure was calculated, how districts were identified as high risk for each measure, and other measure-related information.
Some districts have access to revenues and budget capacity that are not available to all districts. These revenues may help lessen financial risks for some districts, but desegregation and small school adjustment revenues can contribute risk for other districts, if they result in a district's property tax rate being frozen, which can cause the district to accumulate unfunded budget capacity. Select the information icon to learn more about the revenues presented.
Source: Desegregation, small school adjustment, and voter-approved budget override amounts - FY 2025 Arizona Department of Education BUDG75 report. Federal Impact Aid amounts - FY 2025 district submitted, unaudited annual financial reports.